Today is a big day in the Rock Hall watching world. The online fan vote is wrapping up and the Rock Hall will be receiving the last of the mailed-in ballots from voters before today’s deadline.  It’s now time for me to predict which artists I think will be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame’s Class of 2022. This is a very strong ballot consisting of 17 artists who each have excellent cases for induction. Voters can select up to 5 artists on their ballots but, as always, it’s a daunting task that never gets any easier. Trust me, I do a mock voting exercise each year and it was beyond difficult to choose only 5.

I ranked the nominees in order of who I think will most likely receive induction this year. Because this is an incredibly competitive ballot, there’s very few shoo-ins. Part of why I held off making predictions was that I couldn’t make up my mind. But the more I thought about it, I really like this ballot for one simple reason: the lack of a consensus among Rock Hall watchers and followers. It’s somewhat boring if we can all guess at least 4-5 of the inductees as that has been the case in recent years. But beyond maybe 2-3 names, it’s anyone’s guess how this all pans out. But no matter what, this will be a great class and I will be beyond pleased whoever receives induction.

Here’s my predictions:

Eminem: He’s not a favorite of mine, but Eminem is probably the biggest slam dunk of this year’s nominees. He has the necessary critical acclaim, industry recognition and commercial success to warrant induction in his first year of eligibility. This is the type of artist that the Rock Hall cannot wait to honor, and I doubt voters will pass up the opportunity to induct him.

Duran Duran: Ever since I started following the Rock Hall a decade ago, I’ve always wanted to see this band receive a nomination and it finally happened this year. They finished first on the fan vote and they probably have the most rabid fanbase of any nominee on the ballot. Younger voters, aka those not eligible for an AARP membership, will have fond memories of seeing Duran Duran on MTV and easily vote for them. On the heels of The Cure and Depeche Mode’s inductions in recent years, I can’t see a scenario where the voters pass up a populist new wave act as successful and beloved as Duran Duran. This is your closing act at this year’s ceremony.

Pat Benatar: It was surprising she didn’t get inducted the first time she was on a ballot a few years ago, but she was never a critical favorite. Maybe some voters assumed she would get in without their vote but now it’s all business and many will make it a point to vote for her this time around. She’s perhaps the only ‘true’ classic rock artist on the ballot and the voters love their classic rock. And on the heels of The Go-Go’s induction last year, Benatar seems like the next female rocker of the 1980s to get into the Rock Hall and rightfully so. She belongs in the Rock Hall…even if she’s ambivalent about the honor.

Dolly Parton: This is incredibly tough. Dolly is, of course, a beloved entertainer and one of the greatest people to ever grace our planet. When she was first announced as a nominee, I thought she had the strongest odds of induction…even more so than Eminem. But in the wake of Dolly disassociating herself from her nomination last month, it’s hard to figure out if voters will respect her wishes. The more I thought about it, Dolly’s stock considerably dropped amongst voters but she’s still a strong contender for induction. I could see a scenario where voters still elect her, especially if ballots were received before the statement was released. Earlier today, she said “I’ll accept gracefully” if voted into the Rock Hall. At this point…who knows how things will play out.  

Carly Simon: She’s been eligible for decades and this is finally her first nomination. Simon’s catalog of terrific songs will likely appeal to the older segment of the voting body (aka, inductees, and industry veterans). She’s a missing piece in the puzzle of late-20th century singer-songwriters who deeply impacted both music and popular culture. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Simon doesn’t receive enough votes, especially after Carole King’s induction last year, and I think she has a lot more support from voters than most observers would admit. And since Dolly’s infamous ‘bowing out’ last month, that only helps someone like Carly Simon (among others) to make it pass the finish line this year.

Judas Priest: What a difference a few years make. I never thought I would ever see the day where I legitimately think Judas Priest has a fighting chance with these voters. Perhaps the nominating committee cleared the lane, well sorta, for Priest by not over-saturating the ballot with hard rock and metal-adjacent acts. Maybe that helps them and it’s weird they aren’t finishing in the top 5 of the fan vote this year (they finished in fifth place in 2018 and 2020). This could all be a pipe dream, but there seems to be more momentum for Priest this year and I think this might be their time.

_________________________________

Eurythmics: They were previously nominated four years ago but that feels like a lifetime ago. I had a similar reaction when The Cure, after a 7-year absence, returned to the ballot and made it in on their second nomination. Enough time passed that the Eurythmics stand out and that really helps them, especially when the Hall added newer (and likely younger) voters since then. A seminal early MTV favorite with a string of massive hits still widely heard today, the Eurythmics are simply a defining act of the new wave era. It also helps both Annie Lennox and Dave Stewart are so well-connected and beloved in the music industry. Something like this only increases their odds for induction. They’re a wild card pick that feels on the cusp of induction this year. It could go either way for them, but I suspect their time is coming very soon.

_________________________________

Lionel Richie: He is truly the wild card of this year’s nominees. Lionel Richie is a beloved music icon who dominated popular music for decades. He should be higher in my rankings, but I have my reservations. He was never a critical favorite and there’s been hardly any reappraisals of his legacy in recent years. And, on top of that, his solo career is rooted largely in pop and adult contemporary, two genres that don’t have the best track record with Rock Hall voters. Despite all this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Richie as one of this year’s inductees. He has numerous high-profile awards on his mantle and way too well-connected in the industry to be written off.

Dionne Warwick: Usually there is at least one legacy artist inducted each year and that certainly helps someone as legendary as Dionne Warwick. When she was nominated for the first-time last year, she appeared on a stacked ballot that included the likes of Tina Turner, Carole King, and Chaka Khan. The problem is she didn’t stand out from the pack but there seems to be a massive push for her induction as of late. Even if she doesn’t consider herself part of the rock and roll canon (she certainly does), I think her chances greatly increased this year. Older voters will likely support her candidacy, but I feel it’s still a little too dicey to predict as an inductee. I hope I’m wrong here.

A Tribe Called Quest: Here’s the thing…Tribe might be my favorite hip-hop artist of all time and I would happily vote for them if I had a ballot. I’m just not buying the scenario that they’ll be inducted this year. It’s been mainly critics who have sung Tribe’s praises, and this is probably the definition of a critical darling. To put it another way, these are probably the same voters who also supported Kraftwerk and Chic and that didn’t turn out well. It would be revolutionary if two hip-hop artists were inducted in the Performers category, and I’d be overjoyed if Tribe made it this year. They certainly have a much-better opportunity for induction than most expected, but I wouldn’t bet on it happening.

Rage Against the Machine: This is a band the nominating committee clearly wants in. Tom Morello, after all, is a Nom Com member and this is their 4th nomination in 5 years of eligibility. Rage always struck me as a band that could easily get enough votes in any given year, and I’ve even predicted them in the past. This could be their year, but I just don’t think it’s happening for some reason. The problem with Rage is they need to remind voters why they matter in the first place – maybe make a high-profile concert gig or (really) make a new album. Maybe because the ceremony will be in L.A. this year, that could slightly help them, but I doubt it. If that was the case, Devo would’ve gotten in last year. I wouldn’t count them out and if there is a 90s rock act getting in, it’s probably Rage.

Kate Bush: Ironically earlier today, I released a brand-new podcast episode focusing on Bush’s life and career. I love her to death, and she just might be my favorite artist on the entire ballot. She’s an iconoclast performer whose influence has only increased over time. But her chances for induction are rather slim this year. Just like her two prior nominations, I’m afraid she’ll get lost in the shuffle again. I wouldn’t count her out just yet as she has massive acclaim and industry praise on her side. I’ll run up that hill for Kate but I’m not sure if the Rock Hall will do the same. 

Beck: I always thought Beck was one of the few 90s artists who’d get inducted as soon as he made it onto the ballot. I’m not quite sure what’s going on, but very few are talking about his nomination this year. Perhaps some in the voting body don’t see him as a high priority. But for someone as vitally important to modern popular culture as Beck, you’d think he would be given more serious consideration. I wouldn’t write him off so quickly as he’s well-connected in the industry, widely acclaimed by critics and an artist who can still perform at some pretty big venues. I just hope he doesn’t strike out with voters so badly that the committee second guesses which 90s artists, outside their first year of eligibility, appear on future ballots.

New York Dolls: When they were nominated last year, a lot of bloggers and Hall observers thought the New York Dolls were legit contenders for induction. After Roxy Music and T. Rex’s inductions, there seemed to be a narrative in place for the Dolls as the next glam rock band to get inducted, but they missed out. They seem like an afterthought this year. Because many voters have fond memories of the Dolls in their heyday, they have an outside chance for induction. But these voters are few and far between. The Dolls, in short, seem destined for the reimagined Early Influences category soon. Maybe they’ll gain more traction than last year (who knows), but that’s where I sadly see it heading.

Devo: Let’s face it, Devo wants to get inducted more than any other artist on this year’s ballot. I’m seeing a lot of articles with the members discussing their Rock Hall snub as of late. When you’re constantly talking about the Rock Hall and you’re not already inducted, you want to get in badly. Devo, in an odd way, needs the validation as they rarely received much industry praise throughout their career. And as worthy as they are, they’re a little too gimmicky and niche to resonate with the voters. If they don’t get in this year, I challenge the Nom Com to hold off Devo next year and give The B-52’s a chance. I bet they would get inducted on their first try.

Fela Kuti: He did incredibly well on last year’s fan vote - finishing second thanks to the entire nation of Nigeria voting for Fela Kuti in masses. He didn’t make it, but I was surprised to see him back this year. His prospects aren’t looking good, and, like the Dolls, he feels like an afterthought. Critics will always be the most adamant supporters for Kuti’s candidacy, but they’re just one segment of the voting body. The Rock Hall’s track record with international artists is shaky at best and I don’t believe he’ll be selected this year. The sad part is he’s probably the most qualified artist on the entire ballot. He will likely be inducted into either the Musical Excellence or Early Influence categories soon. 

MC5: Something’s gotta give with the MC5. This is their 6th nomination, and it doesn’t feel like they’re any closer to induction. At this point, they seem destined for the newly reimagined Early Influences category, and I bet that happens this year. Wayne Kramer is back on the road and doing a lot of interviews as of late. Do it while he can still perform at one of these ceremonies! And plus, the committee really needs to free up some ballot space.

To recap, these are my predictions for the class of 2022:

• Pat Benatar

• Duran Duran

• Eminem

• Dolly Parton

• Judas Priest

• Carly Simon

If 7, Eurythmics.

If you liked this blog, check out my podcast Rock in Retrospect where we focus on the lives, careers and legacies of important artists in rock and history. We did episodes on 5 of this year’s nominees: Kate Bush, Duran Duran, Eurythmics, MC5 and Carly Simon. We’re on all major platforms including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and Amazon Music.

Thoughts? Comments? Send me an email to continue the conservation!