I don’t know about anyone else but it’s hard to believe it’s been nearly two months since the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame announced their 2024 nominees. Today is the final day of both the fan vote and the deadline for voters’ ballots to arrive in the mail, so I decided to put together a blog and predict this year’s inductees. The announcement is likely only a few days away. It’s an exciting time as this is arguably the most completive ballot in recent memory. All 15 nominees are worthy of the honor, and they all have a legitimate chance to get in this year. Voters are now allowed to choose up to 7 names, it was previously 5, and that could make a significant difference in the final tally. This is also the first ballot after Jann Wenner’s public fall from grace due to his controversial New York Times interview last September. This might be on the minds of a lot of Rock Hall voters, and it will be interesting how it all shapes up.

No matter who gets inducted this year, I’ll be happy for them. All 15 artists deserve to get in and this is such a wild, unpredictable ballot to predict. Well, here goes nothing, here’s my predictions for those in the performers category:

1. Mariah Carey: She has the stats and fame to easily make it on her first try. Arguably the biggest star on this year’s ballot and someone who checks off every box you’re looking for in a Rock Hall inductee. I cannot imagine other names on this ballot overshadowing Mariah. It would be a massive failure on the Hall’s part if Mariah somehow didn’t make it this year.

2. Cher: Not too much to add that hasn’t been said a million times over. Cher is arguably the biggest pop culture name on the ballot, and probably the most overdue. There’s not a scenario where she doesn’t make it in. She’s just that beloved and iconic. I’m more curious if John Sykes will convince her to come to the ceremony this fall. Now that will be something!

3. Foreigner: Perhaps more than any nominee this year, Foreigner really wants to get inducted. You know what… they absolutely deserve it. If inducted, this proves the nominating committee might not be done with classic rock just yet. Oh, finally…it really bodes well for Foreigner that they have several heavyweights championing their cause. When the likes of Paul McCartney and Dave Grohl are making the case for them, that speaks volumes. They are probably the two most beloved and respected rock stars on the planet and if they want them in, so do their peers. Yeah, it’s happening for Foreigner.

4. Peter Frampton: He just appeared at last year’s ceremony and, especially in the last half-decade, that often pays off for those on the outside looking in. I gather a significant portion of the voting body will say “I can’t believe he’s not in” and check off his name. Frampton has baby boomer nostalgia in his favor and let’s honor the man while he can still play. I would be surprised if he doesn’t get inducted this year.

5. Kool & the Gang: On the heels of the Spinners’ induction last year, it’s highly probable Kool & the Gang happens. They’ve been eligible for nearly 3 decades and remain one of the most egregious snubs (regardless of genre or era). There will likely be a big celebration in Cleveland this October when these R&B icons enter the Rock Hall.

6. Lenny Kravitz: Sometimes it pays to play the game. Whether you like Lenny Kravitz or not, it doesn’t matter – he has been one of the biggest rock stars of the last 35 years. The man just oozes coolness. He is someone who has been well-awarded by the industry and collaborated with some of the biggest names in rock history (too many to list here). He has the credentials, the hits and notoriety to make it in on his first try and I’m betting that it happens. For whatever reason, he feels like the perfect performer to “open” the next ceremony and wow the crowd with a melody of his biggest hits.

7. Sinead O’Connor: It sucks to induct artists when they are no longer with us but, let’s be honest, Sinead would’ve disowned a Rock Hall nomination or induction (she is, to date, the only artist to refuse a Grammy win). Even if Sinead didn’t care for awards or accolades, that doesn’t take away her worthiness for induction into the Rock Hall. I love how we, as a society and culture, have reevaluated her life and career and in a much positive manner. The love she’s received is nothing short of beautiful. I think this might resonate with voters and it could easily happen. If Kate Bush got enough votes last year and she was occupying the artsy rock-pop trendsetter spot, then Sinead has a fighting chance.

The Rest of the Ballot…

Ozzy Osbourne: This is a litmus test for voters when it comes to metal. Ozzy is the biggest metal icon of all time, and he is, of course, already inducted with his band Black Sabbath. My hesitation to predict Ozzy is two-fold. One, I still don’t think voters like metal, and they are more than happy to reject anyone considered too hard rock (crazy, I know). But two, and most importantly, it took Sabbath 8(!) nominations to finally receive induction and that bode well for Ozzy’s chances as a solo artist. Maybe I’m wrong here, and I’ll happily admit that if it’s the case, but I can’t see it happening. Ozzy’s health decline might be on the minds of some voters, and he’s got enough hits as a solo artist to make it in. It’s a huge “I dunno…maybe?” For the record, he is my wildcard pick if there are 8 inductees in the performers category (it’s possible that happens).

Dave Matthews Band: It would not be a good look for the Hall if DMB fails to make it yet again…especially since they topped the fan vote both times. I am pulling for them but I’m not sure this is the right ballot for them to get enough votes. Dave himself performed with and inducted Willie Nelson last year: it doesn’t get much bigger than that. If they can’t get in after such momentum, it’s hard to know when they’ll get in.

A Tribe Called Quest: The impression I get is that the nominating committee is really pulling for ATCQ as the next hip-hop act to get in. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they are any closer to the finish line with voters. Maybe I’m wrong but this is, yet again, a tough ballot for them to further stand out and they might be bound for the musical excellence award. They could also easily be the wildcard pick. We shall see! 

Mary J. Blige: I love seeing her back on the ballot and she’s worthy of induction. She’s facing fierce competition from the likes of Mariah Carey and Sade and that might too much for her to overcome with voters. There’s a slight possibility she gets in this year but, if not, she’ll be back in the fold next year.

Oasis: I love seeing these Britpop icons on the ballot and they have among my favorite discographies of this year’s nominees. Voters are quite fickle when it comes to 90s era rock acts, unless they are slum-dunk first-year inductees, so I don’t like Oasis’ odds for induction this year. The producers might be relived as an Oasis induction would make the Dire Straits debacle look like child’s play.

Sade: A pleasant surprise and really pleased to see them on the ballot. I love how they defy genre expectations and do whatever they want…and remain super successful. The recent Songwriters HOF induction (which is deferred to a later date) bodes well for them, but this might ballot might be too competitive for them to stand out. Their induction would take a few tries before it happens.

Janes’ Addiction: They helped define alternative rock and have a claim to be among the most historically and aesthetically acts on the entire ballot. They were short-lived and their discography is quite sparse, but they made some fantastic works together. I don’t think this is their year but that doesn’t take anything away from their legacy.

Eric B. & Rakim: Probably the biggest surprise on this year’s ballot as they have been off the ballot for 12 years. It’s nice to see the nominating committee acknowledge these early rap pioneers but they lack the name recognition to connect with voters. My guess is if they fail to get inducted this year and none of the performer inductees come from the world of hip-hop, they receive the musical excellence award.

If I was a Rock Hall voter, I would vote for Sinead O’Connor, Kool & the Gang, Cher, Mariah Carey, Jane’s Addiction, Foreigner and Oasis.

Predicting the Side Categories:

It’s impossible to envision how the special committees will handle the side categories so take these predictions with a grain of salt.

Musical Excellence: Devo, Carol Kaye, The Wailers

Early Influence: MC5, Odetta

Non-Performers: Wolfman Jack, Giorgio Moroder