It never gets easier predicting who will appear on the annual Rock & Roll Hall of Fame ballots each year. With the exception of one artist (who I will discuss later on), there aren’t any artists who urgently need to be nominated in their first year of eligibility. Although I’ve read and heard that this year’s newly eligible artists are “weak” as a whole, I don’t find that to be the case. There are at least 5 artists who will someday appear on a ballot – Missy Elliott, Destiny’s Child, Sean Combs (aka P. Diddy), Muse and Queens of the Stone Age. Maybe I’m slightly biased given this is the music of my adolescence but these five are no-brainers. I will, in other words, defend the worthiness of these artists until my face is blue.

There’s a lot of unknowns and uncertainties heading into the 2023 season. Rick Krim is replacing Jon Landau as head of the nomination committee and it’ll be interesting if any significant changes are made. Personally, I don’t think they’ll be much of a difference and the ballots will be like the ones we’ve seen in recent years. Basically, the “same old, same old.” But I love when the committee throws surprises at us. Maybe they’ll nominate artists from genres, eras and countries they haven’t explored much. Who knows…

The field is incredibly wide open and there’s very few artists with much momentum as we head into the 2023 nomination season. I have a feeling they’ll be a healthy amount of previously nominated artists. There were, in fact, 10(!) of those on last year’s ballot…and there were only 17 total spots. So, expect a lot of the usual suspects. After attending the 2022 induction ceremony last November, there was definitely a strong presence of MTV-era favorites and I would expect to see some of those long-snubbed icons and legends in the mix. And finally, I strongly considered and picked several artists who “played ball” with the Hall, meaning they appeared, performed and/or inducted at past ceremonies. This definitely matters and helps keep their name in the conversation.

If you haven’t already, check out my podcast Rock in Retrospect’s 2023 nominees draft episode. I had 4 great friends as guests and we tried to “think” like those on the nomination committee. It was a blast to record and hope you all enjoy it!

Here are the artists I think will appear on next month’s ballot:

The B-52’s: They just concluded a successful farewell tour, have a Vegas residency booked later this year and will be the subjects of an upcoming documentary. Of all the populist new wave acts to never have appeared on a ballot, they are the most glaring exclusion thanks to their singular brand of dance-infused rock and roll. Unlike their art rock contemporaries Devo, The B-52’s would likely get enough votes for induction the first time they’re on a ballot. Critics adore them, they have 4-5 beloved classic songs, and they are well-respected amongst their contemporaries. They’re overdue. If not now, then when?

Mary J. Blige: Some are predicting Mariah Carey and I can see the logic behind that. She’s one of the most egregious snubs and there’s a reason she’s ranked #1 on my Rock Hall Prospects Project the last two years. Carey deserves it but I have a strong feeling the committee will nominate Mary J. Blige instead. Blige appeared on the ballot two years ago and she’s currently having a moment. Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance (with 2022 inductee Eminem!), releasing new music that resulted in multiple Grammy nominations and appearing on multiple magazine covers. While both Carey and Blige appeared in multiple video packages during last year’s ceremony, the latter attended the event in-person. That makes a big difference and Blige has worked more closely with the Hall over the last 20+ years. Both deserve it and I adore them with all my heart, but I can’t see the committee putting them both on the ballot. Blige has the slight edge and the one I’d bet on happening.

Kate Bush: What a difference a year makes. Around this time last year, most Hall observers and followers would’ve written off Kate Bush’s prospects to enter the Rock Hall. But after her iconic song “Running Up That Hill” appeared on the uber-popular Netflix series Stranger Things, the song became a global smash. Heck, it even peaked at #3 on the Billboard Hot 100 in the year 2022…. not bad for a song that’s nearly 40 years old! I probably would’ve predicted Bush getting a nomination this year anyway, but it feels like this her “now or never” type of moment. I’m not exactly sure she’ll get enough votes for induction as a performer (she might be destined for the musical excellence category), but she deserves it nevertheless.

Cher: After the recent inductions of Tina Turner, Carole King, Carly Simon and Dolly Parton, Cher seems like the next logical choice who occupies the “icon/legend” spot on the ballot. She’s been eligible for over 30 years and she’s beyond overdue at this point. Cher seems like the kind of artist who would appeal to virtually every age demographic in the larger voting body. No matter what ballot she appears on, she’d likely get voted in off the bat. If not Cher, I’d expect someone like Diana Ross or Patti LaBelle occupying this spot. You gotta believe Cher is happening sooner rather than later.

Sheryl Crow: Some might moan and groan anytime her name gets mentioned, but Sheryl Crow absolutely, 100% deserves to be inducted into the Rock Hall. She is an incredible singer-songwriter who has written some of the best songs in the last three decades. Given her critical acclaim, notoriety and connections to the Hall, it’s frankly shocking she wasn’t nominated in her first year of eligibility. On the heels of Carole King and Carly Simon’s inductions, the committee is now ready to embrace the late 80s/early 90s singer-songwriter boom and Crow is likely the first they put forth. Although there’s plenty of other worthy choices (e.g., Tori Amos, Sinead O’Connor, PJ Harvey, Alanis Morrissette), Crow is probably the most likely to receive induction on her first nomination. She will be the catalyst that allows these other enormously talented performers to be on future ballots. And oh, Crow was involved in 2(!) segments at last year’s ceremony.

Missy Elliott: Of all the newly eligible artists to receive a nomination this year, I’d bet on Missy Elliott happening. I’m not exactly sure why some are writing off Elliott’s chances because she’s one of the most revolutionary and popular artists in the history of hip-hop. Not only that, but she is well-liked by critics and publications and sometimes those things absolutely matter. Are we quickly forgetting that “Get Ur Freak On” is ranked #8(!!!) on Rolling Stone’s 500 Greatest Songs of All Time list and that is the highest-ranked song by a non-Rock Hall inductee (sorry Outkast!). And her 1997 debut album is ranked in the Top 100 on the magazine’s Best Albums list. And let’s not forget that she was inducted into the Songwriters Hall of Fame back in 2019. Beyond that, Elliott is well-liked in the industry and has served as a mentor to many artists throughout her legendary career. If she is nominated, Elliott would be the first southern hip-hop artist to be nominated by the Hall and I bet if she’s on the ballot, she’d likely get in. I wonder if the committee sees her as a priority but she god damn should be!

Billy Idol: When I attended last year’s ceremony, I said on my podcast that it was essentially one long 80s party. The audience, for the most part, stood on their feet and sang along to the songs of that year’s inductees. It was the type of energy that the Hall’s organizers and show producers probably loved. With that in mind, I can see someone like Billy Idol occupying a similar spot at the next ceremony. He started as a punk rocker who would later be embraced by a mainstream global rock audience. Idol was among the first artists shown in advertisements for MTV and quickly became one of the channel’s earliest icons. And he has at least a dozen well-known songs that are still widely played on classic rock and classic alterative/new wave stations.  He hosts a show on SiriusXM, recently got a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame and will be touring later this year. He was supposed to be involved in T. Rex’s segment a few years ago so they definitely have Idol’s number somewhere in their address book. Depending on who else is on the ballot, I can see Idol getting inducted the first time he’s nominated.

Rick James: After Lionel Richie’s induction, perhaps the committee wants to nominate another worthy R&B artist of that era and there’s no one more rock and roll than Rick James. He lived the sex, drugs and rock and roll lifestyle perhaps more than anyone in history, but he was also a fantastic musician. Although James became a punchline thanks to Dave Chappelle’s legendary impersonation on his Comedy Central show years ago, let’s not forget he was one of the towering figures of 70s and 80s R&B music. Akin to Richie, his success helped Motown when it was on the decline and his songs are still heavily featured in modern-day pop culture. In fact, Nicki Minaj’s #1 smash “Super Freaky Girl” heavily sampled James’ iconic 1981 hit.

Chaka Khan: She’s been nominated several times in the last decade, both solo and with her former band Rufus. Khan was surprisingly not on last year’s ballot and most thought she would be given the Musical Excellence Award. Given that the Hall doesn’t release the final vote counts/tallies, it’s hard to say whether Khan is coming very close to induction, or she has loud, vocal supporters in the room. I think it’s a combination of the two, but it seems she will be back on the ballot. For the love of god, put this woman in the Rock Hall!

Fela Kuti: A recent committee favorite, Fela Kuti is certainly a towering figure in world music. He has the backing of most critics and historians so maybe that propels him to receive a third consecutive nomination. He seems destined to be honored in a side category but his presence on the ballot allows the committee to pat themselves on the back that they nominated an international artist.

Cyndi Lauper: When the 2019 nominees were announced on SiriusXM, committee member Alan Light mentioned several female artists who were “discussed” in the room. All but one name has been inducted and that’s Cyndi Lauper. She’s a beloved early MTV icon who wrote and performed some of the biggest pop hits of the 1980s. She is only one away from an EGOT (she needs an Oscar) and received induction into the Songwriters Hall of Fame. With so many 80s icons getting in at the moment, Lauper seems like the next logical choice and I bet she would get in on the first try.

Iron Maiden: After Judas Priest was inducted in the Musical Excellence category last year, it’s tough to say where the committee goes when it comes to metal. It’s a genre that hasn’t been fully embraced by the larger voting body and A-list-level metal artists are struggling to resonate with the voters. I would expect Iron Maiden to return to the ballot this year and see if they fare better. I doubt they get inducted, but you never know.

Dave Matthews Band: They got a ton of flack when they were nominated three years ago but Dave Matthews Band remains one of the most popular bands to emerge out of the 1990s. They are the only artist to top the online fan vote and not receive induction. Given Krim’s prior comments defending the band years ago, I would expect their name to come up in the room again. DMB is also ranked high at the museum’s kiosk votes so it shouldn’t shock anyone to see them return.  They are releasing a new studio album later this year and scheduled a tour. If the Rock Hall wants a guaranteed sold-out ceremony, then they should nominate DMB.

New York Dolls: They probably have a vocal supporter on the committee who spouts the New York Dolls’ greatness. They are indeed great, and they should’ve been inducted two decades ago. Like the MC5, the Dolls’ situation is that the majority of the larger voting body members don’t know their importance and the ship has probably sailed on them getting in as performers. They’re destined to be honored in the reimagined Early Influences category, but they’ll likely be coming back. If not them, probably the MC5 although I wouldn’t be shocked to see proto-alternative legends Big Star in the mix.

Rage Against the Machine: I really want to choose Soundgarden this year. It’s been 3 years and I’m stunned they didn’t get enough votes back in 2020. I’m not choosing them because I don’t know where the band stands with Chris Cornell’s widow. There’s been a lot of bad blood and lawyers involved and it’s not a good situation however it’s framed. That’s my hesitation to pick them but I would like to see them come back. In the meantime, I’ll settle by choosing the committee favorite Rage Against the Machine. They’ve been nominated virtually every year they’ve been eligible, and Tom Morello also has a seat at the table of the meetings each year. I’d rather them give a never-nominated 90s rock band such as Smashing Pumpkins, Oasis or Weezer a shot but Rage is the safe bet.

Dionne Warwick: Although Dionne Warwick doesn’t consider herself to be “rock and roll,” the nomination committee obviously disagrees. She’s been on the last two ballots and it’s very likely she’ll be back again this year. Besides her active, must-read Twitter account, Warwick was the subject of a recent documentary that aired on CNN. It’s that kind of exposure that usually pushes a prospective nominee, especially one who’s been on the ballot before, over the edge. She’s a household name who is a living legend and Warwick always has a fighting chance whenever she’s nominated.

Wu-Tang Clan: It’s possible the committee goes with A Tribe Called Quest again this year. I would like to see it happen, but I think they’re gonna be playing hot potato with the “old school rap” category going forward. De La Soul, Salt N Pepa, Queen Latifah and Outkast (among others) are worthy of consideration, but I have a strong hunch it’s Wu-Tang Clan’s turn. This year will mark the 30th anniversary of their iconic album Enter the Wu-Tang (36 Chambers), which was added to the Library of Congress’ National Recording Registry last year, and the series finale of their biographical series An American Saga will begin airing on Hulu later this month. Maybe it’s their time, maybe it’s not, but they would certainly be a welcoming and refreshing choice on the ballot.

Considered (in no particular order): Mariah Carey; INXS; Destiny’s Child; Outkast; Soundgarden; Willie Nelson; Sade; Diana Ross; A Tribe Called Quest; Warren Zevon; Motörhead; Phil Collins; TLC; Roberta Flack; Beck; MC5; Tracy Chapman; Jane’s Addiction; Thin Lizzy; Gloria Estefan/Miami Sound Machine; Foreigner; TLC; Bryan Adams; The Pointer Sisters; De La Soul; George Michael.

Thoughts? Comments? Send me an email. Just remember to be respectful. If not, I will ignore it.